Only 7.92 Million Babies Born in 2025 — In Six Years, Primary School Enrollment Will Be Halved

The 2025 birth data is out: 7.92 million. That number is so small it feels surreal.

Let me put it in perspective. In 2016, when the second-child policy was first implemented, there were 17.86 million births. In just nine years, the number has dropped by more than half.

Do the math: 7.92 million babies born in 2025 means that around 2031, when these kids start elementary school, first-grade enrollment will be roughly half of what it was a few years ago.

What does that mean in practical terms?

For schools: massive restructuring.

Many primary schools, especially those that expanded during the peak years, will face empty classrooms. Teacher hiring will slow or reverse. Some schools will merge or close. The competition for students will shift from "how do we handle so many?" to "how do we attract enough?"

For parents: maybe some relief?

Smaller class sizes could mean more individualized attention. Less competition for school admissions. But it could also mean school closures in some areas, forcing longer commutes.

For society: profound implications.

A shrinking youth population affects everything from the housing market (fewer young buyers) to the pension system (fewer workers supporting more retirees). The demographic shift is real and it's happening fast.

I look at my 4-year-old and wonder what the world will look like when he starts elementary school. Will his class have 20 kids or 40? Will his school still be open? Will the competition for college be fierce or relaxed?

Nobody has clear answers. But the numbers demand that we start paying attention.