I recently came across a report from Citrini Research, billed as a "Macro Memo from June 2028."

Let me be clear: this isn't a prediction. The author himself says it's a scenario simulation, a thought experiment exploring "what happens if AI goes perfectly."

And this one thought experiment actually caused a market dip β€” several companies' stock prices fell the same day.

I read it carefully and extracted the core points.

The report sets its scene in June 2028. The world then: US unemployment at 10.2%, the S&P 500 down 38% from its 2026 peak, mass white-collar unemployment, consumer spending collapsed, mortgages starting to default.

Not because of recession. Not because of a financial crisis. Because AI was too successful.

There's a concept called "Ghost GDP."

A GPU server farm in North Dakota might produce output equivalent to ten thousand Manhattan white-collar workers. But that output doesn't become wages, doesn't become consumer spending, doesn't flow back into the real economy β€” because machines don't buy things. GDP numbers look great, but the money goes into capital's pockets, not people's.

The first to fall were software companies.

Previously, buying a SaaS product cost hundreds of thousands a year. Now companies just build the functionality in-house using AI. Software companies that rely on "selling seats" see their business models become obsolete overnight.

White-collar workers are the core victims this time.

In the past, machines replaced manual labor; people could shift to cognitive work and even earn more. Not this time. AI goes straight for cognitive work. That "human intelligence premium" β€” the extra money you earn because you're smart, educated, and can write and analyze β€” is being rapidly erased.

When white-collar workers lose their jobs, they move down. A senior product manager earning $180,000 a year gets laid off and drives for Uber β€” earning $45,000 a year. White-collar workers flood into the low-end market, driving down wages there too. The entire salary structure systemically sinks.

White-collar workers make up about 50% of US employment but contribute roughly 75% of discretionary consumer spending. The people buying iPhones, drinking artisanal coffee, and traveling β€” that's mostly white-collar spending... I asked AI about all of this directly.